Business cycle behaviour
Too many elements are at work for the exchange rate possessing a clearly-defined business cycle behaviour. To the extent that the exchange rate is determined by the trade balance, the exchange rate is counter-cyclical as the latter. At peaks, the trade deficit would depress the exchange rate, forcing it to depreciate.
If it is rather the interest rate that turns out to the main driver of the exchange rate, a possible pro-cyclicity of the interest rate would imply a pro-cyclical exchange rate.
In this scenario, recovery and boom are accompanied by rising interest rates and exchange rates. At peaks, we would see very strong currency. Together with domestic demand pressures, this would be the source of a high trade deficit.
If autonomous dynamics in the forex market are the main determinants of the exchange rate, then intense micro-fluctuations and long term tides would ride the exchange rate, possibly with central bank significant interventions.
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Showing posts with label Forex Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Market. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Start To Trade in Forex
Forex: Finding The Best Time To Trade
Here, if you know how, when, and what to trade, you can be sure that you can earn huge amounts of profit. It is a fact that a lot of people who traded in this financial market became successful and became very rich almost overnight.
The Forex market is the largest and the most liquid financial market in the world. Unlike the stock market and other financial market, Forex has no centralized location as it operates 24 hours a day at different locations around the world. Trades in this financial market are done through an electronic network.
Forex was only limited to large multinational corporations and financial institutions, such as banks. However, because of the advancement of the communications technology and also the existence of high speed internet, Forex in the late 90s is now available for everyone who is interested in trading in the Forex market.
For a beginner trader, is simply the buying and selling of different currencies of the world. This may seem simple enough for everyone, but you should also consider that a lot of inexperienced traders and some experienced traders have suffered huge financial losses in Forex.
Keep in mind that aside from the fact that Forex can give you a great money-making potential, Forex also has equal risks. Therefore, before you enter this market and trade, you should first consider a few things in order for you be successful in this money making venture.
First of all, you have to know how to trade currencies. In Forex trading, all you need is a personal computer with an active internet connection, a funded Forex account and a Forex trading system. There are numerous websites that offer Forex trading. In order to start trading, you have to open and fund an account first with your chosen website. After that, you can now start trading in the most liquid market in the world.
You need to have a fast internet connection in order to keep up with the updates and price movements and prevent slippages from happening. Another thing you have to consider is that as much as possible, you should register in a Forex website that offer dummy accounts so that you can practice your skills and strategies in Forex trading.
Here, if you know how, when, and what to trade, you can be sure that you can earn huge amounts of profit. It is a fact that a lot of people who traded in this financial market became successful and became very rich almost overnight.
The Forex market is the largest and the most liquid financial market in the world. Unlike the stock market and other financial market, Forex has no centralized location as it operates 24 hours a day at different locations around the world. Trades in this financial market are done through an electronic network.
Forex was only limited to large multinational corporations and financial institutions, such as banks. However, because of the advancement of the communications technology and also the existence of high speed internet, Forex in the late 90s is now available for everyone who is interested in trading in the Forex market.
For a beginner trader, is simply the buying and selling of different currencies of the world. This may seem simple enough for everyone, but you should also consider that a lot of inexperienced traders and some experienced traders have suffered huge financial losses in Forex.
Keep in mind that aside from the fact that Forex can give you a great money-making potential, Forex also has equal risks. Therefore, before you enter this market and trade, you should first consider a few things in order for you be successful in this money making venture.
First of all, you have to know how to trade currencies. In Forex trading, all you need is a personal computer with an active internet connection, a funded Forex account and a Forex trading system. There are numerous websites that offer Forex trading. In order to start trading, you have to open and fund an account first with your chosen website. After that, you can now start trading in the most liquid market in the world.
You need to have a fast internet connection in order to keep up with the updates and price movements and prevent slippages from happening. Another thing you have to consider is that as much as possible, you should register in a Forex website that offer dummy accounts so that you can practice your skills and strategies in Forex trading.
Traded Currencies
Forex: Traded Currencies
You can make a a decision on dealing this game. The thing you need to know is what to trade. The Forex market involved different currencies from all over the world. It is also traded in forms of currency pairs. Here are the different currency pairs that you should consider trading in the Forex market:
* EUR/USD * USD/JPY * GBP/USD * USD/CHF * AUD/USD * USD/CAD * NZD/USD * EUR/GBP * EUR/JPY * GBP/JPY * CHF/JPY * GBP/CHF * EUR/AUD
These are the most commonly traded currency pairs in the Forex market. It is up to you to determine which currency pair you want to trade depending on market conditions. If you do it right, you can be sure that you can earn a substantial amount of income.
The next and last thing you should consider is when you have to trade in the Forex market. Since the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, you can trade whenever you like. And, since it is the most liquid, you can get out whenever you like. It is just a matter of knowing if the market condition is profitable or if it is falling.
Forex traders are mostly speculators who try to predict which currency is going to increase in value and which currency will decrease in value. Speculators use Forex charts to spot a trend and determine when a particular currency will increase or decrease in value.
Now that you know how to trade in the Forex market, you can now open a funded account and start trading currencies.
Always remember that in all trades done in the financial market, you should also expect to suffer from losses. You should be prepared to deal with it and accept it. This is why you need a substantial amount of money to trade in Forex.
You can make a a decision on dealing this game. The thing you need to know is what to trade. The Forex market involved different currencies from all over the world. It is also traded in forms of currency pairs. Here are the different currency pairs that you should consider trading in the Forex market:
* EUR/USD * USD/JPY * GBP/USD * USD/CHF * AUD/USD * USD/CAD * NZD/USD * EUR/GBP * EUR/JPY * GBP/JPY * CHF/JPY * GBP/CHF * EUR/AUD
These are the most commonly traded currency pairs in the Forex market. It is up to you to determine which currency pair you want to trade depending on market conditions. If you do it right, you can be sure that you can earn a substantial amount of income.
The next and last thing you should consider is when you have to trade in the Forex market. Since the Forex market is open 24 hours a day, you can trade whenever you like. And, since it is the most liquid, you can get out whenever you like. It is just a matter of knowing if the market condition is profitable or if it is falling.
Forex traders are mostly speculators who try to predict which currency is going to increase in value and which currency will decrease in value. Speculators use Forex charts to spot a trend and determine when a particular currency will increase or decrease in value.
Now that you know how to trade in the Forex market, you can now open a funded account and start trading currencies.
Always remember that in all trades done in the financial market, you should also expect to suffer from losses. You should be prepared to deal with it and accept it. This is why you need a substantial amount of money to trade in Forex.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Standard System
Forex: Gold-Exchange Standard System
The FX market was not always quick to respond to changing events. For most of the 20th century, the exchange rates were fixed, or kept constant, according to the amount of gold for which they could be exchanged. This was called the gold-exchange standard.
Under another system, the gold standard, U.S. households and businesses could exchange their dollars for gold. This practice was abandoned in 1933 during the Great Depression to allow freer expansion of money supply. However, foreign governments were still able to exchange their dollars for gold until 1971, when the United States terminated the gold-exchange standard entirely.
Under this system, the value of all currencies was fixed in terms of how much gold for which they could be exchanged.
For example, if one ounce of gold was worth 12 British pounds or 35 U.S. dollars, the exchange rate between dollars and pounds would remain constant at just under three to one.
There were many advantages of the gold-exchange system:
* It served as a common measure of value
* It helped keep inflation in check by keeping money supply in the gold-exchange standard economies fairly stable
* Long-term planning was easier as rate changes were infrequent
This system was put in place in 1944, when the leaders of allied nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to set up a stable economic structure out of the chaos of World War II. The U.S. dollar was fixed at $35 per ounce of gold and all other currencies were expressed in terms of dollars.
The FX market was not always quick to respond to changing events. For most of the 20th century, the exchange rates were fixed, or kept constant, according to the amount of gold for which they could be exchanged. This was called the gold-exchange standard.
Under another system, the gold standard, U.S. households and businesses could exchange their dollars for gold. This practice was abandoned in 1933 during the Great Depression to allow freer expansion of money supply. However, foreign governments were still able to exchange their dollars for gold until 1971, when the United States terminated the gold-exchange standard entirely.
Under this system, the value of all currencies was fixed in terms of how much gold for which they could be exchanged.
For example, if one ounce of gold was worth 12 British pounds or 35 U.S. dollars, the exchange rate between dollars and pounds would remain constant at just under three to one.
There were many advantages of the gold-exchange system:
* It served as a common measure of value
* It helped keep inflation in check by keeping money supply in the gold-exchange standard economies fairly stable
* Long-term planning was easier as rate changes were infrequent
This system was put in place in 1944, when the leaders of allied nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to set up a stable economic structure out of the chaos of World War II. The U.S. dollar was fixed at $35 per ounce of gold and all other currencies were expressed in terms of dollars.
Networks of traders
The Money Makers
Banks are a major force in the FX market and employ a large number of traders. Trading between banks is done in two ways—through a broker or directly with each other.
Brokers:
If a U.S. bank trades with another bank, a FX broker may be used as an intermediary. The broker arranges the transaction, matching the buyer and seller without ever taking a position and charges a commission to both the buyer and seller. About a third of transactions are arranged in this way.
Direct:
Mostly banks deal with each other directly. A trader "makes a market" for another by quoting a two-way price i.e. he is willing to buy or sell the currency. The difference between the two price quotes (the spread) is usually no more than 10 pips, or hundredths, of a currency unit.
Most currencies are quoted in terms of how many units of that currency would equal $1. However, the British pound, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Irish punt and the Euro are quoted in terms of how many U.S. dollars would equal one unit of those currencies.
The currencies of the world’s large, industrialized economies, or hard currencies, are always in demand and are actively traded. In terms of trading volumes, the FX market is dominated by four currencies: the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. Together these account for over 80 percent of the market.
It is not always easy to find a market for all currencies. The demand for currencies of less developed countries, soft currencies, is a lot less than for the hard currencies. Weak demand internationally along with exchange controls may make these currencies difficult to convert.
Banks are a major force in the FX market and employ a large number of traders. Trading between banks is done in two ways—through a broker or directly with each other.
Brokers:
If a U.S. bank trades with another bank, a FX broker may be used as an intermediary. The broker arranges the transaction, matching the buyer and seller without ever taking a position and charges a commission to both the buyer and seller. About a third of transactions are arranged in this way.
Direct:
Mostly banks deal with each other directly. A trader "makes a market" for another by quoting a two-way price i.e. he is willing to buy or sell the currency. The difference between the two price quotes (the spread) is usually no more than 10 pips, or hundredths, of a currency unit.
Most currencies are quoted in terms of how many units of that currency would equal $1. However, the British pound, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Irish punt and the Euro are quoted in terms of how many U.S. dollars would equal one unit of those currencies.
The currencies of the world’s large, industrialized economies, or hard currencies, are always in demand and are actively traded. In terms of trading volumes, the FX market is dominated by four currencies: the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. Together these account for over 80 percent of the market.
It is not always easy to find a market for all currencies. The demand for currencies of less developed countries, soft currencies, is a lot less than for the hard currencies. Weak demand internationally along with exchange controls may make these currencies difficult to convert.
Demand and Supply
Exchange rates respond directly to all sorts of events, both tangible and psychological
* Business cycles;
* Balance of payment statistics;
* Political developments;
* New tax laws;
* Stock market news;
* Inflationary expectations;
* International investment patterns;
* And government and central bank policies among others.
At the heart of this complex market are the same forces of demand and supply that determine the prices of goods and services in any free market. If at any given rate, the demand for a currency is greater than its supply, its price will rise. If supply exceeds demand, the price will fall.
The supply of a nation’s currency is influenced by that nation’s monetary authority, (usually its central bank), consistent with the amount of spending taking place in the economy. Government and central banks closely monitor economic activity to keep money supply at a level appropriate to achieve their economic goals.
Too much money è inflation è value of money declines è prices rise.
Too little money è sluggish economic growth è rising unemployment.
Monetary authorities must decide whether economic conditions call for a larger or smaller increase in the money supply.
* Business cycles;
* Balance of payment statistics;
* Political developments;
* New tax laws;
* Stock market news;
* Inflationary expectations;
* International investment patterns;
* And government and central bank policies among others.
At the heart of this complex market are the same forces of demand and supply that determine the prices of goods and services in any free market. If at any given rate, the demand for a currency is greater than its supply, its price will rise. If supply exceeds demand, the price will fall.
The supply of a nation’s currency is influenced by that nation’s monetary authority, (usually its central bank), consistent with the amount of spending taking place in the economy. Government and central banks closely monitor economic activity to keep money supply at a level appropriate to achieve their economic goals.
Too much money è inflation è value of money declines è prices rise.
Too little money è sluggish economic growth è rising unemployment.
Monetary authorities must decide whether economic conditions call for a larger or smaller increase in the money supply.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Forecast Currency
Forex: Factors affecting the value of a currency
Are FX price movements random chance, and the market a gamble?
There are technical and fundamental factors affecting the value of a currency. Most currencies define their price relative to the US dollar. Micro price fluctuations are unavoidable and unpredictable. However there is nothing like a special FX-sensitive event to drive the market all one way -- like elections, interest-rate changes, publication of economic indicators, Fed Chairman Greenspan's speech.
Anyone however humble who correctly forecasts the market can make sizeable profits. One day in October 1992, financier George Soros correctly judged the British pound was indefensibly overpriced. He fearlessly sold sterling against the dollar and made 2 billion dollars of profit within a few hours.
The FOREX market is so immense no individual can manipulate prices, not even the central banks. But private individuals can correctly identify then anticipate price trends thus making large profits employing small leveraged capital, depositing only 1% margin upfront. Actual price movement of a currency is normally very small, so we give you 100 times leverage to make significant profit levels possible.
Are FX price movements random chance, and the market a gamble?
There are technical and fundamental factors affecting the value of a currency. Most currencies define their price relative to the US dollar. Micro price fluctuations are unavoidable and unpredictable. However there is nothing like a special FX-sensitive event to drive the market all one way -- like elections, interest-rate changes, publication of economic indicators, Fed Chairman Greenspan's speech.
Anyone however humble who correctly forecasts the market can make sizeable profits. One day in October 1992, financier George Soros correctly judged the British pound was indefensibly overpriced. He fearlessly sold sterling against the dollar and made 2 billion dollars of profit within a few hours.
The FOREX market is so immense no individual can manipulate prices, not even the central banks. But private individuals can correctly identify then anticipate price trends thus making large profits employing small leveraged capital, depositing only 1% margin upfront. Actual price movement of a currency is normally very small, so we give you 100 times leverage to make significant profit levels possible.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Foreign Exchange Market
The Basics of Foreign Trade and Exchange
To buy foreign goods or services, or to invest in other countries, companies and individuals may need to first buy the currency of the country with which they are doing business. Generally, exporters prefer to be paid in their country’s currency or in U.S. dollars, which are accepted all over the world.
When Canadians buy oil from Saudi Arabia they may pay in U.S. dollars and not in Canadian dollars or Saudi riyals, even though the United States is not involved in the transaction.
The foreign exchange market, or the "FX" market, is where the buying and selling of different currencies takes place. The price of one currency in terms of another is called an exchange rate.
The market itself is actually a worldwide network of traders, connected by telephone lines and computer screens—there is no central headquarters. There are three main centers of trading, which handle the majority of all FX transactions—United Kingdom, United States, and Japan.
Transactions in Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Germany, France and Australia account for most of the remaining transactions in the market. Trading goes on 24 hours a day: at 8 a.m. the exchange market is first opening in London, while the trading day is ending in Singapore and Hong Kong. At 1 p.m. in London, the New York market opens for business and later in the afternoon the traders in San Francisco can also conduct business. As the market closes in San Francisco, the Singapore and Hong Kong markets are starting their day.
The FX market is fast paced, volatile and enormous—it is the largest market in the world. In 2001 on average, an estimated $1,210 billion was traded each day—roughly equivalent to every person in the world trading $195 each day.
To buy foreign goods or services, or to invest in other countries, companies and individuals may need to first buy the currency of the country with which they are doing business. Generally, exporters prefer to be paid in their country’s currency or in U.S. dollars, which are accepted all over the world.
When Canadians buy oil from Saudi Arabia they may pay in U.S. dollars and not in Canadian dollars or Saudi riyals, even though the United States is not involved in the transaction.
The foreign exchange market, or the "FX" market, is where the buying and selling of different currencies takes place. The price of one currency in terms of another is called an exchange rate.
The market itself is actually a worldwide network of traders, connected by telephone lines and computer screens—there is no central headquarters. There are three main centers of trading, which handle the majority of all FX transactions—United Kingdom, United States, and Japan.
Transactions in Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Germany, France and Australia account for most of the remaining transactions in the market. Trading goes on 24 hours a day: at 8 a.m. the exchange market is first opening in London, while the trading day is ending in Singapore and Hong Kong. At 1 p.m. in London, the New York market opens for business and later in the afternoon the traders in San Francisco can also conduct business. As the market closes in San Francisco, the Singapore and Hong Kong markets are starting their day.
The FX market is fast paced, volatile and enormous—it is the largest market in the world. In 2001 on average, an estimated $1,210 billion was traded each day—roughly equivalent to every person in the world trading $195 each day.
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