Forex: Gold-Exchange Standard System
The FX market was not always quick to respond to changing events. For most of the 20th century, the exchange rates were fixed, or kept constant, according to the amount of gold for which they could be exchanged. This was called the gold-exchange standard.
Under another system, the gold standard, U.S. households and businesses could exchange their dollars for gold. This practice was abandoned in 1933 during the Great Depression to allow freer expansion of money supply. However, foreign governments were still able to exchange their dollars for gold until 1971, when the United States terminated the gold-exchange standard entirely.
Under this system, the value of all currencies was fixed in terms of how much gold for which they could be exchanged.
For example, if one ounce of gold was worth 12 British pounds or 35 U.S. dollars, the exchange rate between dollars and pounds would remain constant at just under three to one.
There were many advantages of the gold-exchange system:
* It served as a common measure of value
* It helped keep inflation in check by keeping money supply in the gold-exchange standard economies fairly stable
* Long-term planning was easier as rate changes were infrequent
This system was put in place in 1944, when the leaders of allied nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to set up a stable economic structure out of the chaos of World War II. The U.S. dollar was fixed at $35 per ounce of gold and all other currencies were expressed in terms of dollars.
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Thursday, August 13, 2009
Options Transaction
FOREX: Buying foreign Currency
To address the lack of flexibility in forward transactions, the foreign currency option was developed. An option is similar to a forward transaction. It gives its owner the right to buy or sell a specified amount of foreign currency at a specified price at any time up to a specified expiration date.
For a price, a market participant can buy the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a currency at a fixed price on or before an agreed upon future date. The agreed upon price is called the strike price.
Depending on which—the option rate or the current market rate—is more favorable, the owner may exercise the option or let the option lapse, choosing instead to buy/sell currency in the market. This type of transaction allows the owner more flexibility than a swap or futures contract.
Option to buy currency = Call option
Option to sell currency = Put option
Suppose a trader purchases a six-month call on one million euros at 0.88 U.S. dollars to a euro.
* During the six months the trader can either purchase the euros at the 0.88 rate, or purchase them at the market rate
* Option can be sold and resold many times before the expiration date
* Options serve as an insurance policy against the market moving in an unfavorable direction
To address the lack of flexibility in forward transactions, the foreign currency option was developed. An option is similar to a forward transaction. It gives its owner the right to buy or sell a specified amount of foreign currency at a specified price at any time up to a specified expiration date.
For a price, a market participant can buy the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a currency at a fixed price on or before an agreed upon future date. The agreed upon price is called the strike price.
Depending on which—the option rate or the current market rate—is more favorable, the owner may exercise the option or let the option lapse, choosing instead to buy/sell currency in the market. This type of transaction allows the owner more flexibility than a swap or futures contract.
Option to buy currency = Call option
Option to sell currency = Put option
Suppose a trader purchases a six-month call on one million euros at 0.88 U.S. dollars to a euro.
* During the six months the trader can either purchase the euros at the 0.88 rate, or purchase them at the market rate
* Option can be sold and resold many times before the expiration date
* Options serve as an insurance policy against the market moving in an unfavorable direction
Forward Transactions
FOREX: One Way to Deal with the FX risk
In this transaction, money does not actually change hands until some agreed upon future date. A buyer and seller agree on an exchange rate for any date in the future and the transaction occurs on that date, regardless of what the market rates are then. The date can be a few days, months or years in the future.
Futures
Foreign currency futures are forward transactions with standard contract sizes and maturity dates — for example, 500,000 British pounds for next November at an agreed rate. These contracts are traded on a separate exchange set up for that purpose.
Swap
The most common type of forward transaction is the currency swap. In a swap, two parties exchange currencies for a certain length of time and agree to reverse the transaction at a later date.
Japan Yen
Forex: Swap Transaction How it works?
Suppose a U.S. company needs 15 million Japanese yen for a three-month investment in Japan.
* It may agree to a rate of 150 yen to a dollar and swap $100,000 with a company willing to swap 15 million yen for three months
* After three months, the U.S. company returns the 15 million yen to the other company and gets back $100,000, with adjustments made for interest rate differentials
In all of these transactions, market rates might change. However, the buyer and seller are locked into a contract at a fixed price that cannot be affected by any changes in the market rates. These tools allow the market participants to plan more safely, since they know in advance what their FX will cost. It also allows them to avoid an immediate outlay of cash.
Suppose a U.S. company needs 15 million Japanese yen for a three-month investment in Japan.
* It may agree to a rate of 150 yen to a dollar and swap $100,000 with a company willing to swap 15 million yen for three months
* After three months, the U.S. company returns the 15 million yen to the other company and gets back $100,000, with adjustments made for interest rate differentials
In all of these transactions, market rates might change. However, the buyer and seller are locked into a contract at a fixed price that cannot be affected by any changes in the market rates. These tools allow the market participants to plan more safely, since they know in advance what their FX will cost. It also allows them to avoid an immediate outlay of cash.
Exchange Risk
FOREX: Spot Transaction
Suppose a U.S. company orders machine tools from a company in Japan.
* Tools will be ready in six months and will cost 120 million yen.
* At the time of the order, the yen is trading at 120 to a dollar.
* U.S. company budgets $1 million in Japanese yen to be paid when it receives the tools (120,000,00 yen ¸ 120 yen per dollar = $1,000,000)
There is no guarantee that the rate will remain the same six months later.
Suppose the rate drops to 100 yen per dollar:
* Cost in U.S. dollars would increase (120,000,000 ¸ 100 = $1,200,000) by $200,000.
Conversely, if the rate goes up to 140 yen to a dollar:
* Cost in U.S. dollars would decrease (120,000,000 ¸ 140 = $857,142.86) by over $142,000
One alternative for a company is to pay for the foreign good right away to avoid the exchange rate risk. But no one wants to part with money any sooner than necessary—if the company does pay the money in advance, it loses six months’ interest and risks losing out on a favorable change in exchange rates.
Transactions
FOREX: Spot transactions
This type of transaction accounts for almost a third of all FX market transactions. Two parties agree on an exchange rate and trade currencies at that rate.
* A trader calls another trader and asks for a price of a currency, say British pounds.
This expresses only a potential interest in a deal, without the caller saying whether he wants to buy or sell.
* The second trader provides the first trader with prices for both buying and selling (two-way price).
* When the traders agree to do business, one will send pounds and the other will send dollars.
By convention the payment is actually made two days later, but next day settlements are used as well.
Although spot transactions are popular, they leave the currency buyer exposed to some potentially dangerous financial risks. Exchange rate fluctuations can effectively raise or lower prices and can be a financial planning ordeal for companies and individuals.
This type of transaction accounts for almost a third of all FX market transactions. Two parties agree on an exchange rate and trade currencies at that rate.
* A trader calls another trader and asks for a price of a currency, say British pounds.
This expresses only a potential interest in a deal, without the caller saying whether he wants to buy or sell.
* The second trader provides the first trader with prices for both buying and selling (two-way price).
* When the traders agree to do business, one will send pounds and the other will send dollars.
By convention the payment is actually made two days later, but next day settlements are used as well.
Although spot transactions are popular, they leave the currency buyer exposed to some potentially dangerous financial risks. Exchange rate fluctuations can effectively raise or lower prices and can be a financial planning ordeal for companies and individuals.
Networks of traders
The Money Makers
Banks are a major force in the FX market and employ a large number of traders. Trading between banks is done in two ways—through a broker or directly with each other.
Brokers:
If a U.S. bank trades with another bank, a FX broker may be used as an intermediary. The broker arranges the transaction, matching the buyer and seller without ever taking a position and charges a commission to both the buyer and seller. About a third of transactions are arranged in this way.
Direct:
Mostly banks deal with each other directly. A trader "makes a market" for another by quoting a two-way price i.e. he is willing to buy or sell the currency. The difference between the two price quotes (the spread) is usually no more than 10 pips, or hundredths, of a currency unit.
Most currencies are quoted in terms of how many units of that currency would equal $1. However, the British pound, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Irish punt and the Euro are quoted in terms of how many U.S. dollars would equal one unit of those currencies.
The currencies of the world’s large, industrialized economies, or hard currencies, are always in demand and are actively traded. In terms of trading volumes, the FX market is dominated by four currencies: the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. Together these account for over 80 percent of the market.
It is not always easy to find a market for all currencies. The demand for currencies of less developed countries, soft currencies, is a lot less than for the hard currencies. Weak demand internationally along with exchange controls may make these currencies difficult to convert.
Banks are a major force in the FX market and employ a large number of traders. Trading between banks is done in two ways—through a broker or directly with each other.
Brokers:
If a U.S. bank trades with another bank, a FX broker may be used as an intermediary. The broker arranges the transaction, matching the buyer and seller without ever taking a position and charges a commission to both the buyer and seller. About a third of transactions are arranged in this way.
Direct:
Mostly banks deal with each other directly. A trader "makes a market" for another by quoting a two-way price i.e. he is willing to buy or sell the currency. The difference between the two price quotes (the spread) is usually no more than 10 pips, or hundredths, of a currency unit.
Most currencies are quoted in terms of how many units of that currency would equal $1. However, the British pound, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Irish punt and the Euro are quoted in terms of how many U.S. dollars would equal one unit of those currencies.
The currencies of the world’s large, industrialized economies, or hard currencies, are always in demand and are actively traded. In terms of trading volumes, the FX market is dominated by four currencies: the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound. Together these account for over 80 percent of the market.
It is not always easy to find a market for all currencies. The demand for currencies of less developed countries, soft currencies, is a lot less than for the hard currencies. Weak demand internationally along with exchange controls may make these currencies difficult to convert.
Traders
Forex: Trading Deal
Traders in the foreign exchange market make thousands of trades daily, buying and selling currencies while exchanging market information. The $1.2 trillion that is traded everyday may be used for varied purposes:
"Yoshi, it’s Maria in New York. May I have a price on twenty cable."
"Sure. One seventy-five, twenty-thirty."
"Mine twenty."
"All right. At 1.7530, I sell you twenty million pounds."
"Done."
"What do you think about the Japanese yen? It’s up 100 pips."
"I saw that. A few German banks have been buying steadily all day…."
* For the import and export needs of companies and individuals
* For direct foreign investment
* To profit from the short-term fluctuations in exchange rates
* To manage existing positions or
* To purchase foreign financial instruments
In the volatile FX market, traders constantly try to predict the behavior of other market participants. If they correctly anticipate their opponents’ strategies, they can act first and beat the competition.
Traders make money by purchasing currency and selling it later at a higher price, or, anticipating the market is heading down, selling at a high price and buying back at a lower price later.
Trader purchases a lot of currency = long on the currency (e.g. long dollar, long yen)
Trader sells a lot of a currency = short on the currency (e.g. short sterling)
To predict the movements of currencies, traders often try to determine whether the currency’s price reflects its fundamental value in terms of current economic conditions. Examining inflation, interest rates, and the relative strength of the country’s economy helps them make a determination.
Currency underpriced = price will go up
Currency overpriced = price will go down
Traders in the foreign exchange market make thousands of trades daily, buying and selling currencies while exchanging market information. The $1.2 trillion that is traded everyday may be used for varied purposes:
"Yoshi, it’s Maria in New York. May I have a price on twenty cable."
"Sure. One seventy-five, twenty-thirty."
"Mine twenty."
"All right. At 1.7530, I sell you twenty million pounds."
"Done."
"What do you think about the Japanese yen? It’s up 100 pips."
"I saw that. A few German banks have been buying steadily all day…."
* For the import and export needs of companies and individuals
* For direct foreign investment
* To profit from the short-term fluctuations in exchange rates
* To manage existing positions or
* To purchase foreign financial instruments
In the volatile FX market, traders constantly try to predict the behavior of other market participants. If they correctly anticipate their opponents’ strategies, they can act first and beat the competition.
Traders make money by purchasing currency and selling it later at a higher price, or, anticipating the market is heading down, selling at a high price and buying back at a lower price later.
Trader purchases a lot of currency = long on the currency (e.g. long dollar, long yen)
Trader sells a lot of a currency = short on the currency (e.g. short sterling)
To predict the movements of currencies, traders often try to determine whether the currency’s price reflects its fundamental value in terms of current economic conditions. Examining inflation, interest rates, and the relative strength of the country’s economy helps them make a determination.
Currency underpriced = price will go up
Currency overpriced = price will go down
Stock Investing
Earning Money as an Investors
* The currency of a growing economy with relative price stability and a wide variety of competitive goods and services will be more in demand than that of a country in political turmoil, with high inflation and few marketable exports.
* Money will flow to wherever it can get the highest return with the least risk. If a nation’s financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds, offer relatively high rates of return at relatively low risk, foreigners will demand its currency to invest in them.
* FX traders speculate within the market about how different events will move the exchange rates.
For example:
News of political instability in other countries drives up demand for U.S. dollars as investors are looking for a "safe haven" for their money.
A country’s interest rates rise and its currency appreciates as foreign investors seek higher returns than they can get in their own countries.
Developing nations undertaking successful economic reforms may experience currency appreciation as foreign investors seek new opportunities.
* The currency of a growing economy with relative price stability and a wide variety of competitive goods and services will be more in demand than that of a country in political turmoil, with high inflation and few marketable exports.
* Money will flow to wherever it can get the highest return with the least risk. If a nation’s financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds, offer relatively high rates of return at relatively low risk, foreigners will demand its currency to invest in them.
* FX traders speculate within the market about how different events will move the exchange rates.
For example:
News of political instability in other countries drives up demand for U.S. dollars as investors are looking for a "safe haven" for their money.
A country’s interest rates rise and its currency appreciates as foreign investors seek higher returns than they can get in their own countries.
Developing nations undertaking successful economic reforms may experience currency appreciation as foreign investors seek new opportunities.
Demand and Supply
Exchange rates respond directly to all sorts of events, both tangible and psychological
* Business cycles;
* Balance of payment statistics;
* Political developments;
* New tax laws;
* Stock market news;
* Inflationary expectations;
* International investment patterns;
* And government and central bank policies among others.
At the heart of this complex market are the same forces of demand and supply that determine the prices of goods and services in any free market. If at any given rate, the demand for a currency is greater than its supply, its price will rise. If supply exceeds demand, the price will fall.
The supply of a nation’s currency is influenced by that nation’s monetary authority, (usually its central bank), consistent with the amount of spending taking place in the economy. Government and central banks closely monitor economic activity to keep money supply at a level appropriate to achieve their economic goals.
Too much money è inflation è value of money declines è prices rise.
Too little money è sluggish economic growth è rising unemployment.
Monetary authorities must decide whether economic conditions call for a larger or smaller increase in the money supply.
* Business cycles;
* Balance of payment statistics;
* Political developments;
* New tax laws;
* Stock market news;
* Inflationary expectations;
* International investment patterns;
* And government and central bank policies among others.
At the heart of this complex market are the same forces of demand and supply that determine the prices of goods and services in any free market. If at any given rate, the demand for a currency is greater than its supply, its price will rise. If supply exceeds demand, the price will fall.
The supply of a nation’s currency is influenced by that nation’s monetary authority, (usually its central bank), consistent with the amount of spending taking place in the economy. Government and central banks closely monitor economic activity to keep money supply at a level appropriate to achieve their economic goals.
Too much money è inflation è value of money declines è prices rise.
Too little money è sluggish economic growth è rising unemployment.
Monetary authorities must decide whether economic conditions call for a larger or smaller increase in the money supply.
Foreign Exchange Rates
Most common contact with foreign exchange occurs;
When we travel or buy things in other countries.
It would seem logical that if the dollar weakens, the trade balance will improve, as exports would rise. However, this does not always happen. U.S. trade balance usually worsens for a few months.
The J–curve explains why the trade position does not improve soon after the weakening of a currency. Most import/export orders are taken months in advance. Immediately after a currency’s value drops, the volume of imports remains about the same, but the prices in terms of the home currency rise. On the other hand, the value of the domestic exports remains the same, and the difference in values worsens the trade balance until the imports and exports adjust to the new exchange rates.
Exchange rates are an important consideration when making international investment decisions. The money invested overseas incurs an exchange rate risk.
When an investor decides to "cash out," or bring his money home, any gains could be magnified or wiped out depending on the change in the exchange rates in the interim. Thus, changes in exchange rates can have many repercussions on an economy:
* Affects the prices of imported goods
* Affects the overall level of price and wage inflation
* Influences tourism patterns
* May influence consumers’ buying decisions and investors’ long-term commitments.
Suppose a U.S. tourist travelling in London wants to buy a sweater.
Price tag is 100 pounds.
Current exchange Price of sweater in
rate dollars
$1.45 to £1 100 x 1.45 = $145.00
$1.30 to £1 Pound falls 100 x 1.30 = $130.00
$1.60 to £1 Pound rises 100 x 1.60 = $160.00
Thus, small changes in exchange rates may not seem significant. But when billions of dollars are traded, even a hundredth of a percentage point change in exchange rates becomes important.
Stronger US dollar implies;
1. U.S. can buy foreign goods more cheaply ------Cost of purchasing foreign goods falls
2. Foreigners find U.S. goods more expensive and demand falls -----Does not help firms that produce for exports
Weaker U.S. dollar implies;
1. Foreigners buy more U.S. goods -------Helps firms that rely on exports
2. Foreign goods become more expensive ------Demand for imports falls
When we travel or buy things in other countries.
It would seem logical that if the dollar weakens, the trade balance will improve, as exports would rise. However, this does not always happen. U.S. trade balance usually worsens for a few months.
The J–curve explains why the trade position does not improve soon after the weakening of a currency. Most import/export orders are taken months in advance. Immediately after a currency’s value drops, the volume of imports remains about the same, but the prices in terms of the home currency rise. On the other hand, the value of the domestic exports remains the same, and the difference in values worsens the trade balance until the imports and exports adjust to the new exchange rates.
Exchange rates are an important consideration when making international investment decisions. The money invested overseas incurs an exchange rate risk.
When an investor decides to "cash out," or bring his money home, any gains could be magnified or wiped out depending on the change in the exchange rates in the interim. Thus, changes in exchange rates can have many repercussions on an economy:
* Affects the prices of imported goods
* Affects the overall level of price and wage inflation
* Influences tourism patterns
* May influence consumers’ buying decisions and investors’ long-term commitments.
Suppose a U.S. tourist travelling in London wants to buy a sweater.
Price tag is 100 pounds.
Current exchange Price of sweater in
rate dollars
$1.45 to £1 100 x 1.45 = $145.00
$1.30 to £1 Pound falls 100 x 1.30 = $130.00
$1.60 to £1 Pound rises 100 x 1.60 = $160.00
Thus, small changes in exchange rates may not seem significant. But when billions of dollars are traded, even a hundredth of a percentage point change in exchange rates becomes important.
Stronger US dollar implies;
1. U.S. can buy foreign goods more cheaply ------Cost of purchasing foreign goods falls
2. Foreigners find U.S. goods more expensive and demand falls -----Does not help firms that produce for exports
Weaker U.S. dollar implies;
1. Foreigners buy more U.S. goods -------Helps firms that rely on exports
2. Foreign goods become more expensive ------Demand for imports falls
Brokers
There are four types of market participants;
Banks, Brokers, Customers, Central banks.
* Banks and other financial institutions are the biggest participants. They earn profits by buying and selling currencies from and to each other. Roughly two-thirds of all FX transactions involve banks dealing directly with each other.
* Brokers act as intermediaries between banks. Dealers call them to find out where they can get the best price for currencies. Such arrangements are beneficial since they afford anonymity to the buyer/seller. Brokers earn profit by charging a commission on the transactions they arrange.
* Customers, mainly large companies, require foreign currency in the course of doing business or making investments. Some even have their own trading desks if their requirements are large. Other types of customers are individuals who buy foreign exchange to travel abroad or make purchases in foreign countries.
* Central banks, which act on behalf of their governments, sometimes participate in the FX market to influence the value of their currencies.
With more than $1.2 trillion changing hands every day, the activity of these participants affects the value of every dollar, pound, yen or euro.
The participants in the FX market trade for a variety of reasons:
* To earn short-term profits from fluctuations in exchange rates,
* To protect themselves from loss due to changes in exchange rates, and
* To acquire the foreign currency necessary to buy goods and services from other countries.
Banks, Brokers, Customers, Central banks.
* Banks and other financial institutions are the biggest participants. They earn profits by buying and selling currencies from and to each other. Roughly two-thirds of all FX transactions involve banks dealing directly with each other.
* Brokers act as intermediaries between banks. Dealers call them to find out where they can get the best price for currencies. Such arrangements are beneficial since they afford anonymity to the buyer/seller. Brokers earn profit by charging a commission on the transactions they arrange.
* Customers, mainly large companies, require foreign currency in the course of doing business or making investments. Some even have their own trading desks if their requirements are large. Other types of customers are individuals who buy foreign exchange to travel abroad or make purchases in foreign countries.
* Central banks, which act on behalf of their governments, sometimes participate in the FX market to influence the value of their currencies.
With more than $1.2 trillion changing hands every day, the activity of these participants affects the value of every dollar, pound, yen or euro.
The participants in the FX market trade for a variety of reasons:
* To earn short-term profits from fluctuations in exchange rates,
* To protect themselves from loss due to changes in exchange rates, and
* To acquire the foreign currency necessary to buy goods and services from other countries.
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